[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N15W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO 02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THEN ALONG
THE EQUATOR TO 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-
07N BETWEEN 12W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N
BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF...MID-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED PRIMARILY
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE OKLAHOMA NEAR 37N96W AND
SECONDARILY BY A LOCALIZED 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N100W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF A
LINE FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO THE 1028 MB HIGH WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 21N OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N79W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 85W. W OF 85W...
MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W SW TO 20N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15
TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL
EXPAND BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION TO THE NORTH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N74W AND STRETCHES SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 23N81W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AS A STATIONARY
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT AND GENERALLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND THE
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC SE OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 32N61W TO 23N66W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N44W AND SUPORTS A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW NEARLY
COLLOCATED NEAR 28N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM 28N38W TO 20N42W TO 14N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS N OF 20N AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 30W-39W.
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 41W-46W. FINALLY...A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB
HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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