[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST WED MAR 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO
4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 3N23W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 26W...TO 1S34W AND 3S40W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N16W 3N23W 2N30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE WEST OF 30W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO WESTERN CUBA...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONT IS INLAND...LEAVING
ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE GULF WATERS. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES FROM MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND
FLORIDA...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 65W...AND WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 30N73W 25N80W 21N85W 18N88W 15N87W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N86W...TO 16N87W JUST OFF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS.

THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FLORIDA BIG BEND
NEAR 31N84W...TO 26N85W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA...TO 16N93W IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA...TO
25N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...TO A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N99W IN MEXICO...TO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE
BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...TO THE FLORIDA BORDER.
MILTON FLORIDA AND TAMPA FLORIDA ARE REPORTING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE AT THE STATION KCRH. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES
COVER THE REST OF THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE DRILLING SITES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WATER VAPOR
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N47W...TO 23N49W
TO 15N55W AND 8N57W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N37W...TO 20N43W.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 20N43W TO 15N50W. A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 32N47W...AND A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
34N38W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N47W...TO 30N46W...TO 27N47W AND 24N50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 65W...AND
WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N73W 25N80W 21N85W 18N88W 15N87W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N66W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N71W...TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 26N67W...TO 19N70W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 73W...
INCLUDING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W.
EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. EXPECT THE COMPARATIVELY
HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET WITH THE CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N71W...TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 26N67W...TO 19N70W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 3N11W...TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS...
TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N24W...TO 19N36W AND 13N45W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
THAT ARE RELATED TO THE 32N47W 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS TO 30N46W AND 24N50W. ALSO...ATLC COLD FRONT 31N77W TO 26N80W.
N OF 28N W OF 73W SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN NE SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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