[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 37W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 09W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS S-
SW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO
THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W S-SW ALONG
25N93W TO 22N94W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W.
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DOMINATES EAST OF THE FRONT FUELING THE ONGOING CONVECTION...
WEST OF THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS S OF 26N ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND LINGER NORTHWEST
OF THE GULF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING GENERALLY E OF 94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE.
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOCATED S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-78W...AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 66W-76W. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A GULF OF MEXICO COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INTRODUCING STRONG N-NE WINDS N OF 17N W OF 78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD TO BEYOND 32N78W AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N67W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. WEST
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANALYZED
OVER THE SE CONUS AND NE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP
LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N49W REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS A
992 MB LOW NEARLY COLLOCATED NEAR 35N49W. THE PRIMARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 32N38W TO 21N48W AND
BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TO 14N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH
BOUNDARIES. A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY ALOFT FOLLOWS THE COLD
FRONT AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N48W SW TO
24N57W. LIFTING DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE PRIMARILY GENERATING ELEVATED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 48W-58W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB CENTERED NW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 29N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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