[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST TUE MAR 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W
TO 11N18W 6N20W AND 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W...TO 2N30W
1N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...TO 1S49W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT IS INLAND...LEAVING ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IN THE GULF WATERS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N79W TO 20N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...
TO 26N88W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 18N93W IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W IN THE GULF WATERS AND
IN FLORIDA AND GEORGIA ALSO....AND WEAKENING TO ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EAST TEXAS...THROUGH THE WATERS
OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...EDINBURG IS REPORTING
5 MILES OF VISIBILITY AND HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST
OF THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. THE 1 TO 3 MILE VISIBILITY AND FOG
IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HAS CLEARED UP COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING...
DURING THE LAST HOUR. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM
TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA BORDER. THE SKIES ARE CLEARING TO THE WEST OF
THE COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN TALLAHASSEE AND MARIANNA IN FLORIDA.
HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN TALLAHASSEE ACCORDING TO THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS TO THE EAST AS FAR AS AT LEAST
PERRY FLORIDA. TAMPA IS REPORTING BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...
FAIR SKIES ARE OBSERVED AT THE SITES THAT ARE IMMEDIATELY OFF THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF 91W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
TO THE WEST OF THE 30N85W 18N93W COLD FRONT.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WATER VAPOR
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N48W...TO
32N52W 25N56W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W...
TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N66W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT AND A 995 MB GALE CENTER. THE 995 MB GALE CENTER IS NEAR
34N48W. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 31N40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N40W TO 26N44W 19N50W AND 15N55W.
A SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 29N50W AND 25N55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 44W AND 56W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 34W AND 44W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N56W 20N49W 24N43W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 56W.
30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND PUERTO
RICO...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W...TO 18N84W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W...TO 18N84W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N23W...TO
22N35W 15N38W AND 7N42W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 13N30W. A RIDGE IS ALONG 13N21W 13N30W 7N45W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 15 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND 8 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT TO THE WEST OF THE BAHAMAS

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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