[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111905 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2013

CORRECTION FOR ISSUANCE TIME

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 6N17W TO 2N21W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-37W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N E OF 16W TO
JUST INLAND OVER LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES IS MOVING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 11/1500
UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS MOBILE ALABAMA ALONG 26N91W 22N94W
THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM W OF THE FRONT TO
20N. A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TO THE E OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FAR E GULF INTO THE W ATLC IS
GIVING WAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES E. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE
IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER
S TEXAS. ALTHOUGH A MIX OF CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF E OF THE FRONT
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS MOST
OF LOUISIANA...MEXICO AND ALL OF TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE AND
SE OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT S OF
26N WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SE GULF INTO FRI
THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS E OVER THE N GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA ACROSS CUBA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT. HOWEVER...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE ALONG 15N69W 13N79W. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH TUE. THE GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT
EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY WED THEN
FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THU BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA EARLY FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND FAR E GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND COVERING
THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 60W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N44W TO 20N49W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO 14N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT ENTERING
THE REGION NEAR 32N50W TO 28N57W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 51W-60W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N29W COVERS THE E ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-40W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 18N E OF ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A WEAK
1022 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N16W. W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE E THROUGH TUE. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY TUE NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 32N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY WED THEN FROM
BERMUDA TO E CUBA EARLY THU AND FROM 32N56W THROUGH 23N65W TO
HAITI EARLY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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