[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
6N15W 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 1N25W 1N30W 1N40W
2N44W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
3S51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 1E AND 2W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 7W AND
9W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N22W 3N26W 2N31W 2N35W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN
15W AND 20W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM COLOMBIA IN SOUTH AMERICA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST...
AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 5N77W...TO COSTA RICA NEAR
10N84W...TO GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W...TO 20N95W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...BEYOND COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTH OF 24N81W 24N90W AND 18N95W.

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST
OF 90W IS MOVING INTO THE FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE
32N66W 20N70W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
24N87W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 16N87W IN HONDURAS...
TO 10N83W JUST OFF THE COSTA RICA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS MOVING FROM SOUTH INTO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND CONTINUING
ALL THE WAY AROUND THE FLORIDA COAST TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS/FAIR SKIES WITH SOME VISIBILITIES AROUND
5 TO 6 MILES...COVER THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES
THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST
OF 88W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 94W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 77W.
THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS PART OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING WITH THE 5N77W 30N92W
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AND THE
20 TO 25 KNOT NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N TO THE WEST OF 82W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES...
AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 39N64W IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER...THROUGH
32N66W...TO 26N68W AND 20N70W. THE TROUGH EXTENDED INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA 12 HOURS AGO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PART OF THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. A BRANCH OF THE TROUGH
REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 17N75W AND 14N75W. A 986 MB STORM LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 39N63W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THAT
CENTER...THROUGH 32N49W TO 26N54W TO 22N60W AND 19N66W. THE COLD
FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 19N66W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 NM TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN END...AND
WITHIN 270 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END...EVERYTHING IS BETWEEN 47W AND 59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO
28N25W TO 24N29W. NO FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS WITH THIS TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N35W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N33W...TO 21N37W AND 8N39W. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND BEYOND 32N8W IN MOROCCO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OF 30N10W 26N25W 20N32W...TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N70W IN
COLOMBIA...TO 12N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 11N50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 31N50W 19N68W 19N70W...TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 72W...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
15 TO 20 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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