[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE BORDER OF SENEGAL/BISSAU GUINEA CONTINUING ALONG
8N17W 5N17W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 27W-41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 4N18W 2N27W TO 2N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE
GULF TO OVER THE E CONUS NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE E CONUS ANCHORED BY A
1033 MB HIGH OVER S MICHIGAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE W GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SW IS AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF/E CONUS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E INTO W ATLC MON ALLOWING SE
RETURN FLOW W OF 95W AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS NW GULF SUN
NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY MON AND FROM N FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N52W ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO S NICARAGUA. THIS IS GIVING THE BASIN MAINLY
SW TO W WINDS ALOFT. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM 17N80W TO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 12N84W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 50W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N57W TO 21N64W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER N
HAITI NEAR 19N72W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT TO 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND E
CONUS IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE W ATLC W OF 75W. A SURFACE
TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N49W ALONG 24N54W TO
JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO
THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
41W-50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W
ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 24N36W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE FAR E ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N28W
AND SPLITS THE ABOVE SURFACE RIDGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SLIDE E TO OVER THE NE ATLC. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE W ATLC DURING THE DAY TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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