[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W 5N18W 2N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N23W TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 30W...ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...TO 2S44W
AT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE
EAST OF 10W...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N
BETWEEN 24W AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N
BETWEEN 36W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM COLOMBIA IN SOUTH AMERICA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST...
AND COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 5N77W...TO COSTA RICA NEAR
10N84W...TO GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W...TO 22N91W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...BEYOND COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTH OF 24N81W 23N90W AND 20N97W.

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST
OF 90W IS MOVING INTO THE FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE
32N63W 15N76W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...
TO 20N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 14N88W IN HONDURAS...INTO NORTHERN COSTA RICA.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
COMPARATIVELY CLOSER TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS COMPARATIVELY
MORE INLAND...TO THE WEST...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS ARE COVERED WITH BROKEN
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. FAIR SKIES COVER THE GULF
COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED
IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH
FOG HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AND AT THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE VISIBILITY HAS FALLEN TO SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 2 MILES WITH
FOG IN PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION. FAIR SKIES
COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS
SOUTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.

THE VISIBILITY OF 4 MILES IN HAZE IS OBSERVED IN THE OFFSHORE
OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.
DRILLING SITE KGBK IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING RANGING
FROM 3000 FEET TO 4000 FEET. FAIR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE
STATIONS THAT ARE IN THE AREA OF THE OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES
THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST
OF 88W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 18 HOUR
FORECAST FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 94W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO EASTERN HONDURAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS PART OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING WITH THE 5N77W 30N91W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 79W...
INCLUDING INLAND IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N77W...
TO 10N83W IN COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 10N85W...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES...
AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 37N66W IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER...THROUGH
32N63W...TO 24N65W...TO NORTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND 15N76W.
IT APPEARS THAT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PART OF THE TROUGH AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA PART OF THE TROUGH ARE IN PHASE WITH EACH OTHER
NOW. A 986 MB STORM LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 38N64W. A COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THAT CENTER...THROUGH 32N48W TO
23N56W TO 19N65W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 19N65W...
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO HAITI NEAR 19N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT ALONG
THE NORTHERN END...AND WITHIN 200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN END. EVERYTHING IS FROM 18N
TO 31N BETWEEN 46W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
32W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO
22N24W TO 18N30W. NO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N35W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N35W...TO 23N37W 14N46W AND 3N58W IN
SOUTHERN GUYANA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND BEYOND
32N8W IN MOROCCO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 30N10W 26N25W 20N30W...TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N69W IN
VENEZUELA...TO 10N60W AND 12N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE 32N48W 19N65W 19N72W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 61W AND 71W...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
16 TO 20 FEET. OTHER WIND AND SEA INFORMATION...EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
25N WITHIN 150 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 8 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF
19N TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net