[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ACROSS GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 10N15W ALONG 5N18W TO 1N22W WHERE THE
ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG EQ30W 2N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W
INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND
47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
FROM 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS
PROVIDING NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW UP TO 60 KT AND MOISTURE FROM THE
E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE NW GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SAME AREA IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N
OF 23N W OF 90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC CROSSES E CUBA AND ENTERS THE WEST
CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N75W TO 18N78W. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NO
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD ANTICYCLONE WITH CENTER
NEAR 11N55W IS PROVIDING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UP TO 65
KT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSISTING IN THE
GENERATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THESE REGIONS OF THE
BASIN. THE WEST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEING ASSISTED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-20 KT ARE E OF 75W WHEREAS
NORTHEASTERLIES OF 10-20 KT SPREAD W OF 75W. OVER THE COURSE OF
24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 53W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N57W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 25N61W 22N70W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA
NEAR 20N74W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT N
OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W ANCHORED BY A
1021 MB HIGH NEAR 24N41W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FROM
7N-20N E OF 40W OVER THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N13W CONTINUING ALONG 25N23W
TO 21N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THIS FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...BOTH FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO VANISH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR





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