[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W AND THEN ALONG 4N16W TO
2N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N21W TO EQ27W 3N38W THEN S OF
THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BUT N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
WINDS OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS
PROVIDING NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW UP TO 60 KT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO
THE NW GULF THUS ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THIS REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ASSISTED BY DRY AIR ALOFT. SURFACE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONGER
WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD ANTICYCLONE WITH CENTER NEAR
11N53W IS PROVIDING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT UP TO
65 KT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSISTING IN THE
GENERATION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THESE REGIONS OF THE
BASIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEING ASSISTED BY MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-20 KT ARE E OF 75W WHEREAS
NORTHEASTERLIES OF 10-20 KT SPREAD W OF 75W. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 50W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N55W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 25N59W TO 22N65W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT TO 20N74W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT TO
68W AND N OF 29N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN 30W-50W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
NEAR 24N41W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FROM 7N-18N E OF
40W OVER THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N21W TO
22N28W. OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS...BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE EXPECTED TO VANISH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR








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