[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ACROSS GUINEA NEAR 10N14W ALONG 7N17W TO 3N20W WHERE THE
ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N26W 3N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W
INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
BETWEEN 18W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO OVER TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND THE E CONUS ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH OVER W TENNESSEE. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
ALOFT ACROSS THE W GULF WHILE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE SAME AREA IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-27N W
OF 93W TO JUST INLAND OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN. N WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BEHIND COLD FRONT ALONG COAST OF
MEXICO EARLY MON THROUGH LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC CROSSES E CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN WHERE IT
DISSIPATES AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N81W TO 18N85W. AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N56W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO N NICARAGUA
CONTINUING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS IS GIVING THE BASIN MAINLY SW TO W WINDS ALOFT. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN.
REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 19N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W
INCLUDING JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME FURTHER DIFFUSE TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 50W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N60W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 25N66W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA NEAR HOLGUIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 23N-27N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF
THE FRONT TO 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-60W ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N49W.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC N OF 27N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N11W CONTINUING ALONG 27N23W TO
23N31W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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