[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 6N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 1N30W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...
FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 28W
AND 30W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W...AND FROM
1N TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN...
4N6W 6N15W 5N30W 3N40W 3N50W 3N53W IN SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
MEXICO INTO AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WIND FLOW PATTERN
HINTS AT A COMPARATIVELY WEAK TROUGH FROM 23N89W TO 21N92W...
TO MEXICO NEAR 17N99W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
14N104W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 28N80W 27N90W 26N97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N69W
TO A FLORIDA 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N81W...
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
21N84W...THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 15N91W IN SOUTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MEXICO 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N106W TO A SECOND MEXICO 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N99W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS IN EASTERN TEXAS...APPROACHING THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA...THROUGH THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST...TO A MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 27N102W...TO 29N106W.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...
AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT IS ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF
24N92W 30N88W. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE GALE-FORCE WINDS IS 30N87W 28N91W 25N95W 21N97W. EXPECT
25 TO 35 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-WIND
SITUATION THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE OBSERVATION AT THE REYNOSA MEXICO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
FOR 05/1725 UTC CONSISTS OF VISIBILITY OF HALF A MILE WITH
A SANDSTORM...HAZE...AND SMOKE. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE
REST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
RANGING FROM 3000 FEET TO 4000 FEET ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. BROKEN LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
FROM 3000 FEET TO 5000 FEET COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN THE
FLORIDA BORDER AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN...ARE IN THE FLORIDA COASTAL
PLAINS AND AT THE COAST FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WESTWARD. FAIR
SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE FLORIDA COASTAL PLAINS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE ARE OBSERVED IN THE OFFSHORE
DRILLING SITES THAT ARE BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. STATION KEHC IS
REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1.75 MILES AND HAZE. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND HAZE ARE OBSERVED IN THE OTHER AREAS OF THE OFFSHORE
OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF
88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE AND BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS TO THE
NORTH OF 20N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND TO
THE EAST OF 63W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES EXTENDS FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
NEAR 18N64W TO 15N74W AND 11N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
200 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM 19N60W TO 17N66W 17N71W 16N76W 9N79W

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N69W
TO A FLORIDA 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N81W...
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
21N84W...THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 15N91W IN SOUTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
NEAR 18N64W TO 15N74W AND 11N78W. THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST...
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS TO 9 FT. N OF 13N W OF 69W TO A LINE FROM 13N77W TO 18N72W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N74W TO 16N77W...INCLUDING TO WINDWARD
PASSAGE...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W
TO 26N64W AND 22N67W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N60W TO 25N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 30N45W 27N50W 21N60W...
TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE NEAR 18N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W 28N44W 22N58W 18N64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N52W 22N48W
BEYOND 32N44W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS
AND 62W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 11N37W 7N42W
4N43W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 29N69W
TO A FLORIDA 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N81W...
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
21N84W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N39W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN/CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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