[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO 3N13W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT 3N13W AND CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO BRAZIL NEAR
1S49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 15W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N
BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 24N98W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
S OF 26N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE
N GULF N OF 26N. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 16N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
BAND OF RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 78W-87W TO INCLUDE THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...AND NW VENEZUELA NEAR
LAKE MARACAIBO. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT.
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA NEAR
9N63W PRODUCING S TO SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 26N50W
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 20N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT IS MOSTLY VOID
OF SHOWERS IS FURTHER W AND EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 24N60W TO N
OF HISPANIOLA AT 23N68W. A GALE IS W OF THIS FRONT TO 60W N OF
28N. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 22N37W
MOVING E. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS FROM
20N-30N ACROSS THE OCEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N72W TO S FLORIDA WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A NEW GALE TO BE W OF THIS FRONT.
FURTHERMORE EXPECT THE OTHER TWO FRONTS TO MERGE WITH MORE
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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