[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE MAR 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N18W TO 01N29W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 06W-11W...AND S OF 04N
BETWEEN 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
BASIN WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF NEAR
29N86W SW TO A BASE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N100W. MOSTLY DRY
AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ALOFT WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N80W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DOMINATES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT LOCATED NW OF A
LINE FROM 30N85W TO 21N97W. THE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA
SKIRTS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLC COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
VENEZUELA NEAR 08N64W WHICH IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FOCUSED MAINLY WEST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A COLD
FRONT FROM 20N63W IN THE ATLC OCEAN TO 17N66W SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...THEN MEANDERS SW AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
17N66W TO 15N74W TO 13N77W. LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 16N W OF 80W... AND S OF 16N
BETWEEN 70W-85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INLAND NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA. LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH THE USUAL E-NE
TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH THEMSELVES BY WEDNESDAY AS
A RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC TO THE NORTH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR 43N66W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG
30N46W TO 25N54W TO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W AND
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N AND
WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT AND S OF 21N BETWEEN 64W-73W. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN
THE VICINITY OF 33N58W THAT SUPPORTS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE AS A COLD
FRONT FROM 32N59W SW TO 27N66W. NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE WERE
NOTED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 05/0128 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 68W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N80W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES AS A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
22N43W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGE ARE NW WINDS OVER THE
FAR NE ATLC GENERATING POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS GENERALLY
N OF 29N E OF 23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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