[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W
TO 2N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 2N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG EQ30W
EQ40W 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-1N
BETWEEN 31W-35W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 38W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COOL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 26N96W. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT STILL REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN MEXICO. MOSTLY DRY AIR
ALOFT IS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE CLEAR SKIES
ARE NOTED. THE SE HALF OF THE BASIN HAS OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE AREA
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE GULF MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE BASIN TO
NEAR 25 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS ALONG 20N83W
16N85W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE IMMEDIATELY NORTH
OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE SE
CONUS. HOWEVER..BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 68W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EAST OF
THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR MUCH OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT
DOMINATES MUCH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALSO IMPACTING A GOOD PORTION
OF THE WEST ATLC. THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N45W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N61W 25N71W 22N77W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALSO SPREAD NW OF THE FRONT WEST OF 60W. ALOFT...BROAD
UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WEST ATLC ALONG 65W SUPPORTING A 1018
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N43W...WHICH DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 20W
SUPPORTS A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N17W
AND CONTINUES TO 21N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 220 NM
EAST OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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