[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO
2N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 2N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG EQ30W EQ40W
1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COOL AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BASIN.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND A 1026 MB
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N96W. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT STILL REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER AND NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 28N94W 28W99W.
ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN
MEXICO. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW GULF. THE SE HALF OF THE BASIN
HAS OVERCAST SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE GULF MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW
CORNER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
ACROSS THE BASIN TO NEAR 25 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO EASTERN HONDURAS ALONG 19N83W
15N84W. A SPOT 1011 MB SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO BEEN ANALYZED ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR 18N84W. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERING MUCH OF THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER..BROAD UPPER RIDGING
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EAST OF THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR MUCH OF COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...AND THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE PRESENT S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-85W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS ALSO EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 78W-81W.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES
COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALSO IMPACTING A GOOD PORTION
OF THE WEST ATLC. THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N41W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N60W 22N77W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALSO SPREAD NW OF THE FRONT WEST OF 60W. ALOFT...BROAD
UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE WEST ATLC ALONG 65W SUPPORTING A PAIR
OF 1016 MB SURFACE HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 21N57W AND 23N38W...WHICH
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 20W SUPPORTS A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N15W AND CONTINUES TO 21N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 270
NM EAST OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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