[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
3N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
3N17W TO 0N30W TO 0N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ BETWEEN 14W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. FAIR
SKIES ARE OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA...AND
TEXAS. FURTHER S...OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. RADAR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS NOTED WITH A 110-170 KT JETSTREAM OVER
THE N GULF N OF 26N. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 20-25
KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO BE OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST
WINDS W OF 90W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT
22N77W TO SW CUBA AT 21N84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AT 16N86W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF
THE FRONT. 12-25 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED
FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN CONTRAST STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO W PANAMA WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT 20-30 KT WINDS TO BE W OF FRONT...WITH
AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM
11N-16N W OF FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 25N70W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N43W. A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N19W TO 24N26W TO 20N36W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 10W-35W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT BOTH
COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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