[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W
CONTINUING ALONG 6N15W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG
1N23W 1N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 1N18W AND FROM 4N TO S OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLC E OF 40W. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND THE NW ATLC ARE SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W ALONG 23N86W TO
21N93W THEN S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 19N94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE S OF A LINE FROM ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN
TAMPA AND FORT MYERS ALONG 24N89W TO 23N91W. A DENSE LAYER OF
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
COVER THE W GULF W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. THIS CLOUD BANK ALSO EXTENDS INLAND OVER MEXICO TO
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
OVER S TEXAS. COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE AND REACH NW COAST OF
CUBA THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFT SE INTO
NW CARIBBEAN SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE
ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL THEN E GULF SUN AND MON WHERE IT WILL
WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE FAR W GULF
LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE
AND REACH FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SW GULF BY LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLC E OF 40W. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER CUBA NEAR 23N81W ALONG THE SW COAST OF CUBA
ALONG 21N85W TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER CUBA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ALTHOUGH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE SWEEPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN
76W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN BE FORCED FURTHER
SE TONIGHT AND SAT BY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM E
CUBA TO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W BY SAT EVENING THEN FROM
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO N COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 80W SUN EVENING.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD SE BEHIND FRONT AND REACH
NEAR GALE FORCE OFF COAST OF HONDURAS SAT MORNING BEFORE GALES
COMMENCE ACROSS W PORTIONS OF CARIBBEAN BEHIND FRONT SAT EVENING
AND SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLC E OF 40W. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND THE NW ATLC ARE SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0900 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N63W
ALONG 28N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 29N
TO THE COLD FRONT W OF 75W. THE REMNANT FRONT TO THE E IS MOVING
AS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION AT 01/0900 UTC NEAR 32N58W
CONTINUING ALONG 28N65W TO 25N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
AGAIN THEN THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF
THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N AND FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT W OF 73W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC
N OF 17N BETWEEN 20W-40W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N22W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N26W TO 24N31W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE W ATLC FRONTS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE E ATLC FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1017 MB
HIGHS NEAR 24N48W AND 20N28W. BOTH W ATLC FRONTS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY SE THROUGH SAT THEN MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
E CUBA SAT NIGHT. THEY WILL THEN BE FORCED INTO CENTRAL ATLC
LATE SUN BY A NEW COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE AREA
AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OVER NE OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AND SHIFT E FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE
MON AND SLIDE E THROUGH TUE...ALLOWING FOR SW WINDS TO INCREASE
OVER THE FAR W ATLC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW







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