[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING ALONG 4N13W TO 3N17W
WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-40W
THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
8W-22W AND FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLC E OF 40W. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...INTO THE NW ATLC ARE SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0300 UTC MEANDERS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN VERO BEACH TO FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF
ALONG 25N84W 25N87W 23N91W 22N94W THEN S THROUGH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. THERE IS LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A DENSE COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF A LINE FROM 29N87W TO MEXICO NEAR
18N95W AND S OF LINE FROM 29N87W TO MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. THIS
CLOUD BANK EXTENDS INLAND OVER MEXICO TO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS CUBA OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N86W TO INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF
LINE FROM ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI INTO THE SE GULF ALONG
24N85W TO 23N89W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N
GULF N OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA ALONG 28N89W TO
27N93W. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM S FLORIDA TO YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SE OF THE GULF EARLY FRI. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SAT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS THROUGHOUT.
THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE E GULF SUN AND MON WHERE IT
WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE FAR W GULF LATE
SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND
REACH FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SW GULF BY LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLC E OF 40W. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W THAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF W
CUBA OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 22N86W TO INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W TO N BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
W OF A LINE FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N BELIZE. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE COVERING
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SE THROUGH EARLY FRI WHILE WEAKENING. THE COLD FRONT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SWEEP SE ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
FRI MORNING THEN REACHING FROM W CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS FRI
NIGHT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS SAT AND FROM E CUBA TO
PANAMA SAT NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT
THROUGH LATE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THE ATLC E OF 40W. HOWEVER AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...INTO THE NW ATLC ARE SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/0300 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W
TO 27N76W THEN MEANDERS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR VERO BEACH. THERE IS LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS AT 01/0300 UTC
EXTENDING ACROSS BERMUDA CONTINUING ALONG 28N69W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N W OF 77W TO THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 25N50W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 20W-40W
SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N23W
AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N29W TO 21N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SE AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT
INTO FRI THEN REACH FROM 32N59W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI MORNING. THE
MERGED FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH
SAT NIGHT. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC LATE SUN INTO MON AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT E. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATE MON AND
SLIDE E THROUGH TUE ALLOWING FOR SW WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE
FAR W ATLC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net