[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 08W-17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 22W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
NEAR 37N87W TO OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 26N103W. CONSIDERABLE
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS STRETCHES OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH A
COLD FRONT POISED TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED VIA THE SW NORTH ATLC TO
THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N80W TO 22N90W THEN TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...GENERALLY WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 15 TO 25 KT PERSIST AND ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANOTHER WAVE
OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BY LATE SATURDAY...INCREASING
WINDS AT THE SURFACE FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF AND SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
LATE MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR AND MODERATELY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 13N W OF 85W. WHILE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
IMPACTING THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MORE SPECIFICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO
21N85W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A
LINE FROM 22N81W TO 16N87W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE AIRMASSES W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH A PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. BY
EARLY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS W OF 78W AND POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE NICARAGUA COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE PERSISTENT TRADES IN
THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC WITH A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS DRAPED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THE EASTERN-MOST COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N57W SW TO THE SE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N
OF 23N. TO THE NW...ANOTHER SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
27N77W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 25N81W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THE WESTERN-MOST FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE LEADING
COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE FRIDAY
AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FARTHER
EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 24W TO
A BASE NEAR 22N24W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N21W SW TO 26N26W TO 20N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1017 MB HIGHS...ONE
CENTERED NEAR 20N27W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 23N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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