[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
TO 6N14W AND 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W TO 1N24W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 1S32W AND 2S38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 24W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 51W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 TO 360 NM TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF 16N17W 12N26W 11N36W 8N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO GUATEMALA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N77W...NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 16N90W IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES COVER THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS AT THE MOMENT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...
LOW VISIBILITIES...AND AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG WERE AFFECTING THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA WESTWARD...TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS DURING SOME OF THE LATE
NIGHT-INTO EARLY MORNING-SUNRISE AND MORNING RUSH HOUR TIMES OF
THE DAY.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N TO HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...AND MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...CUBA TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST
OF 80W.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N60W AND 24N68W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N68W TO 21N73W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE STATIONARY FRONT...
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
27N70W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
28N TO 29N ALONG 80W/81W...TO 30N85W IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AREA. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND ALABAMA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 26N58W 20N70W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W COVERING THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITH THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N54W 27N62W 25N72W 28N80W.

A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N85W...TO 26N91W...TO 20N97W
IN COASTAL MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN FOUND ACCORDING TO SCATTEROMETER WIND
DATA...ALONG 60W/61W FROM 13N TO 20N. THIS POSITION IS CLOSE TO
AND/OR ON TOP OF SOME OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THIS
WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL GUATEMALA CYCLONIC
CENTER AND RELATED TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM HAITI TO EAST
CENTRAL NICARAGUA.

AN ILL-DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NEAR 15N69W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. SOME OF THESE AREAS ARE...FROM
15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
14N70W 14N77W 14N84W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W IN THE
COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS...CURVING TO 7N85W AND BEYOND 6N90W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...HAS BEEN GIVING INFORMATION FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ABOUT THE FRESH TRADE WINDS THAT ARE
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THOSE TRADE WINDS HAVE BEEN
AFFECTING THE POSITION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N70W 14N77W 1483W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 23N43W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 38W AND THE 32N57W-TO-23N82W IN CUBA
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N20W...TO A 17N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 12N35W AND 12N39W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW MOVES FROM BRAZIL NEAR THE
EQUATOR...ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME...AND GUYANA...INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND IT CONTINUES EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF 12N.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING FROM THE EQUATOR...
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE STARTS NEAR 34N4W IN MOROCCO TO 32N11W...
TO A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N26W...
TO 29N39W 24N48W AND 24N61W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N62W 28N73W 28N81W COLD FRONT AND
THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS...N OF 29N BETWEEN FRONT AND 55W SW
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM
WEST OF THE FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT IN NW
SWELL. S OF 27N W OF 66W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT
BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND 27N. ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT E OF 78W WINDS
20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. A SECOND AREA
CONSISTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FEET SEA HEIGHTS...
THE HIGHEST SEAS TO THE EAST OF 38W...TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
TO THE EAST OF 46W. ANOTHER AREA IS BETWEEN THE FRONT ALONG
31N62W 28N73W 28N81W AND 42W AND ALSO S OF 25N TO THE EAST
OF 42W 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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