[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
03N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 10W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC TO OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. WHILE THIS TROUGH IS PART OF BROADER
TROUGHING LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN U.S SEABOARD...IT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THE FRONT REMAINS
PRECIPITATION-FREE OVER FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO PUSH
SOUTH OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 102W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY...SUBSIDENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N87W AND IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SLIGHTLY SE BUT REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER WESTERN
CUBA TO A BASE AND MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
ALONG WITH A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM 21N77W TO 19N84W THESE
FEATURES ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21N78W
TO 16N88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...
HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE E OF 80W. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT WITH STRONGER WINDS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NE
AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N73W TO 11N84W. THIS
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S SEABOARD THAT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC. THE TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 25N
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W. THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N73W THEN W-NW TO COASTAL FLORIDA NEAR
30N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. TO THE SE...A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
32N53W TO 23N70W AND CONTINUES TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W AS A
SHEAR LINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND S OF 24N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THESE TWO
FRONTS REMAIN AS THE ONLY AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
ATLC BASIN AS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N27W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SW TO 25N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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