[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO 01N25W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 08N BETWEEN 28W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF NEAR
17N92W. WHILE THIS TROUGH IS PART OF BROADER TROUGHING LOCATED
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...IT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
ALONG 30N/31N IN THE SW NORTH ATLC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION AND NORTHERN
PENINSULA WHILE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 103W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY...SUBSIDENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AS A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N87W AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER WESTERN
CUBA TO A BASE AND MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N92W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 15N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE E OF 80W. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT WITH STRONGER WINDS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N74W
TO 12N84W. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD THAT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC. THE TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 25N OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W. THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO 30N75W THEN WESTWARD TO COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR
31N81W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. TO THE SE...A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
32N51W TO 23N68W AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
70W-80W. THESE TWO FRONTS REMAIN AS THE ONLY AREAS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN AS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N27W
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 25N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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