[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 2N23W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
2W-21W INCLUDING SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES INCLUDING THE W GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC NARROWS SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FORMING A SECONDARY UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES TO OVER THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT ALONG
THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE THERE IS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A POSSIBLE STRAY
ISOLATED SHOWER S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 29N85W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON SUN ALLOWING
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF BECOMING STATIONARY SUN
NIGHT AND DISSIPATING ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
GULF ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
SANTA CLARA TO AN UPPER LOW OVER BELIZE. THE REMAINED OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS ALL BUT
THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE MAINLY S OF 20N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA. REMNANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
76W-84W INCLUDING JAMAICA. TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE W
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS LATE IN THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 50W THEN
NARROWS DRAMATICALLY AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA. INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-79W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS.
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING ALONG 27N61W TO 25N68W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 25N74W THEN ACROSS THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. A REMNANT STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING ALONG 25N59W TO 22N66W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES S OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N73W. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF THESE FRONTS ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONTS ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR
32N26W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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