[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF NEAR
22N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM OVER THE FAR SW GULF WATERS
E-NE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF WATERS INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LIFTING DYNAMICS IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25N81W TO 20N96W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...STABLE CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE PREVAIL AS A STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 28N85W AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING E-NE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE TROUGHING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WEST OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH
STRONGER WINDS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLC. THE TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 27N OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO
25N65W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT REMAINS THE ONLY AREA
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN AS THE REST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 32N25W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 25N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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