[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N16W TO 1N28W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 1S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN ONE CLUSTER FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN
38W AND 40W...AND IN A SECOND CLUSTER FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN
43W AND 45W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE REMNANT
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2S TO 4N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM BRAZIL NEAR 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 46W
AND 50W...OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N BETWEEN 18W AND 51W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N70W IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N75W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TO 22N90W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TO 19N94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND 16N93W IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST
OF GUATEMALA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE AREA THAT IS ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE TROUGH.

FAIR SKIES COVER THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS AT THE MOMENT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...
LOW VISIBILITIES...AND AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG WERE AFFECTING
THE U.S.A. GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WESTWARD...
TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS
DURING SOME OF THE LATE NIGHT-INTO EARLY MORNING-SUNRISE AND
MORNING RUSH HOUR TIMES OF THE DAY.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
COVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
AND MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... AND
CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 80W IN CUBA TO EASTERN COASTAL
HONDURAS.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
26N60W 24N66W AND 22N69W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N69W
TO NORTHERN COASTAL HAITI...AND ACROSS HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN
COAST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS
OF HAITI NEAR 18N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 34N50W 29N60W 24N70W...
TO 20N75W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA.

A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N88W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO A 1027 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N98W IN MEXICO A LITTLE
BIT INLAND FROM THE COAST...INTO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W.
SOME MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF 70W AND TO THE
NORTH OF 16N...FROM THE LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N48W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
NEAR 14N65W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
15N70W 15N77W 15N84W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 3N78W IN THE
COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS...CURVING TO 5N81W AND 9N84W IN COSTA
RICA...TO 8N86W AND BEYOND 5N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FRESH TRADE
WINDS THAT ARE FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. THOSE TRADE
WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE POSITION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
7N83W 5N86W 5N90W 4N94W 5N97W 4N99W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT ARE CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N70W 15N77W 15N83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 23N48W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 36W AND THE 33N70W-TO-SOUTH FLORIDA
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 25N16W TO 15N27W...12N37W
AND 11N44W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH
COLOMBIA...BECOMING WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING THROUGH INTERIOR
VENEZUELA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE EAST
OF 66W...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 14N ALONG
57W...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE REST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT ACCOMPANIES THE 25N16W 11N44W TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE STARTS NEAR 32N4W IN MOROCCO TO 32N10W...
TO A 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N25W...
TO 32N30W 29N39W 26N49W 23N60W 22N66W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N52W 22N70W COLD FRONT AND 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 48W. 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 65W. A SECOND AREA HAS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W
A THIRD AREA HAS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 22N TO THE EAST OF 46W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N
TO THE EAST OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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