[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
21W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW GULF NEAR
24N95W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS. SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM OVER THE SW GULF WATERS E-NE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF WATERS INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC. WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LIFTING DYNAMICS IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 26N81W TO 21N94W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...STABLE CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE PREVAIL AS A STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 29N86W AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING E-NE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE TROUGHING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WEST OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH
STRONGER WINDS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND IN THE VICINITY
OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND GREAT LAKES REGION THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC. THE TROUGHING DIPS
SOUTHWARD TO 27N OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N52W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE FRONT
AND WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT REMAINS THE ONLY
AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN AS THE REST OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 33N25W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 24N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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