[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN LIBERIA INTO THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 5N8W 4N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N17W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 1N33W 1S40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
7W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AROUND
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
29N86W...AS OF 2100 UTC. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING THE AREA THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. ACROSS THE GULF...A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH STILL EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS. WHILE EMBEDDED WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR...THE
UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
SOUTH OF 24N WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOTED. AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE SW
GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N96W TO 19N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY ANTI-CYCLONIC
AROUND THE HIGH...EXCEPT IN THE SW GULF NEAR THE
TROUGH...RANGING FROM 5-10 KT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER TO 15 KT IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A FEW AREAS OF 20 KT IN THE SE GULF.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
KEEPING THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING SOME
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WEST OF 83W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALSO DRAPED OVER FAR
EASTERN CUBA WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR IT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH 15 KT
TRADEWIND FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N56W AND CONTINUES TO THE SE BAHAMAS AT 22N72W WHERE IT BEGINS
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N24W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18N54W TOWARDS THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...BUT IT IS NOT
CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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