[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W
TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W TO 3N20W 2N26W 1N29W
1N34W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...TO 1S41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N INLAND
TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W AND 10W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 19W AND 40W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W ALONG THE COAST
OF GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SEPARATE
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BEYOND SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR
24N98W...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N97W...INTO THE SOUTHERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W...TO 23N85W TO 20N94W..TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 19N96W.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...LOW VISIBILITIES...FOG...AND DRIZZLE WERE
OBSERVED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE/RUSH
HOUR TRAFFIC HOURS IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS...THE LOWER VALLEY
OF TEXAS...THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...NEAR
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...AND NEAR CECIL AIRPORT IN THE
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AREA. THE CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BREAKING OUT
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IN THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS...GIVING
WAY TO FAIRER SKIES.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
SOUTH TEXAS...TO MEXICO NEAR 19N97W...TO THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE
WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ALSO MOVES FROM THE AREA OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH...
NEAR 5N90W...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND THE VENEZUELA
COAST. SOME MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF 70W...
FROM THE LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 23N53W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
14N70W 15N77W 13N84W. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CEILINGS WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
TO THE WEST OF 84W...FROM WESTERN HONDURAS TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N73W IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
4N80W BEYOND 6N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE
EAST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE CURVING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N70W 15N77W 13N84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N53W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 40W. THE WIND FLOW CURVES
FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 28N65W AND 24N71W.
THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 24N71W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR
22N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
19N79W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL TABLE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.45 OF AN INCH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 24N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 17N34W 12N46W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
THROUGH VENEZUELA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
ALONG 50W...TOWARD 13N33W...MERGING WITH THE REST OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE 24N20W 12N46W TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N29W...TO 30N39W 26N52W 22N67W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N60W 20N75W COLD FRONT AND
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N
TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 52W. A SECOND AREA HAS 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE WEST
OF 61W. A THIRD AREA HAS 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 20N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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