[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL SIERRA LEONE INTO THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 8N13W 6N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT
6N18W AND CONTINUES TO 1N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 28W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS MORNING AROUND A PAIR OF 1025 MB HIGHS OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND EASTERN TEXAS. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT
STILL REMAINS JUST SE OF FLORIDA EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS PROVIDING SOME MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF WHERE A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ADDED WEST OF FLORIDA ALONG 27N83W TO
23N85W BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
FROM OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALOFT...MAINLY SW
FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND WEST ATLC. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH COVERING THE
SOUTHERN GULF BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTH IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN
IS HELPING PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME HIGHER MOISTURE. A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 15-20 KT
TRADEWIND FLOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED IN A VERY SMALL
AREA JUST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS TO GALE FORCE WERE
OBSERVED BY TWO DIFFERENT SHIPS IN THE VICINITY. THE AREA OF
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND THE
NORTHWEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W AND CONTINUES TOWARDS THE NW BAHAMAS
ALONG 30N67W 27N73W 28N78W 24N81W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTEND UP TO 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT BISECTS A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. A 1032 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE FRONT NEAR 40N47W PROVIDING
RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC. A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
32N44W IS S OF THE FRONT PROVIDING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC. BOTH OF THE HIGH CENTERS ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND SW NORTH ATLC ALONG
61W WITH AXIS CONTINUING NE TOWARD THE NE ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW COVERS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N38W SUPPORTING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-24N
BETWEEN 30W-36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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