[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE INTO
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 7N12W 6N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT
6N17W AND CONTINUES TO 1N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 29W-32W.
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN ALABAMA. THIS PATTERN
IS PROVIDING LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT STILL REMAINS JUST SE OF FLORIDA
EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS PROVIDING SOME MOIST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK TROUGHING
JUST WEST OF FLORIDA AND THE FRONT...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL
IF IT IS TRULY AT THE SURFACE OR NOT. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE
ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS AT 0600 UTC. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ALOFT...MAINLY SW FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND WEST ATLC. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
COVERING THE SOUTHERN GULF BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTH IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN
IS HELPING PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 15-20 KT
TRADEWIND FLOW. SOME STRONGER WINDS REACHING 25 KT ARE NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND THE
NORTHWEST ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W AND CONTINUES TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N83W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS. THE
FRONT BISECTS A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF
THE ATLANTIC. A PAIR OF 1030 AND 1032 MB SURFACE HIGHS ARE
CENTERED NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 38N61W AND 40N53W RESPECTIVELY
PROVIDING RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC. A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N42W IS SE OF THE FRONT PROVIDING RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. ALL OF THE HIGH CENTERS ARE SUPPORTING
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND SW
NORTH ATLC ALONG 64W WITH AXIS CONTINUING NE TOWARD THE NE ATLC.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N39W
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 30W-38W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO TO
THE WEST ALONG 23N52W TO 15N51W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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