[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL GUINEA NEAR
9N14W TO 8N15W AND 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N19W TO
2N27W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W...TO THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 29W AND 30W...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...1N3W 2N12W 1N23W...
AT THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...1S30W...2S32W 4S38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AT THE COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 23N83W...CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO ABACO ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 27N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA...MOVING INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AT LEAST BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER MUCH
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AREA OF RAIN/DRIZZLE...LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS...FOG...AND LOW VISIBILITIES COVER THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO MELBOURNE. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED
ALREADY IN SOME AREAS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF MELBOURNE. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE OBSERVED FROM MELBOURNE TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
IN FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE
EVENTUALLY REACHES THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST
OF 17N88W 22N81W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N76W 13N70W 13N66W 13N60W 12N52W.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS MOSTLY SOUTH AMERICA...
ITS CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT ARE OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL...FRENCH GUIANA...
SURINAME...AND GUYANA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND WEST
OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE SOUTHERN COASTS
OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...TO 12N70W 12N76W 9N79W. THIS
INCLUDES POSSIBLE RAIN OR RAINSHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF 15N
TO THE WEST OF 82W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 2N82W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO 6N88W AND 6N90W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITHIN 300 TO 360 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 12N70W 12N76W
9N79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS REACHING
30 KNOTS NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...


A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 30N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 30N60W TO 28N66W AND 27N74W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AT THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N83W...CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO ABACO ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...TO 27N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W 30N60W 25N70W...
TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 15N TO 24N. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 18N61W 26N55W
BEYOND 32N48W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N36W...TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N41W...TO 1N41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N10W AT THE MOROCCO COAST...TO
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N36W IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N53W...AND 26N70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE 32N56W-TO-FLORIDA STRAITS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 10 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS IN THE EXPOSED WATERS FROM 25N TO 29N TO THE WEST OF 73W
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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