[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN GUINEA INTO THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 9N13W 6N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT
6N17W AND CONTINUES TO 0N28W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM WITHIN 90
NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WARM FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
FROM 25N80W TO W CUBA AT 23N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA TO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO FROM PALM BEACH FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO 25N83W TO
25N87W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW
FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO
DISSIPATE OVER S FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR A
90 KT JETSTREAM TO BE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N WITH ZONAL
FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N83W TO
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...N GUATEMALA
...AND BELIZE. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
15N W OF 80W...OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N57W TO 28N65W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ALONG 27N75W 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONTS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 24N52W TO 15N53W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N34W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST
OF MOROCCO AT 31N10W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N20W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 32W-40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONTS TO BECOME STATIONARY WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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