[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N08W TO
04N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N13W TO 04N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 24W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W TO A 2024 MB HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. MOSTLY
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF REMAINING IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SE GULF FROM 25N84W TO 28N84W. WHILE
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN
79W-83W. OTHERWISE...FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
CONUS AND INFLUENCE THE GULF BASIN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN...BUT THIS TROUGHING ALOFT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. THE OVERRIDING WEATHER PATTERN
IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N67W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PREVAIL
WITH STRONGER E-NE WINDS OF GALE FORCE LOCATED WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N E OF 67W...N OF 16 E OF 73W...AND S OF
18N W OF 80W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY FOR THE BASIN THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE NE
CONUS AND GREAT LAKES REGION THAT SUPPORTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N80W. THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING MANIFESTS ITSELF AT THE SURFACE AS A WEAK 1021 MB LOW
CENTERED W-SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 33N52W AND A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS
W-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR
27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
NEAR 30N40W. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 19N38W
THAT IS GENERATING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 25W-36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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