[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N20W
TO 3N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 26W-36W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 26N94W TO N OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 20N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. 15-25 KT N WINDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. 10-20 KT SE WINDS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS
ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 28N BETWEEN
92W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NW GULF NW OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN
STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N78W. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE W ATLANTIC
HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 80W. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN...TO
INCLUDE HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 999 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N46W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 25N E OF FRONT
TO 35W...AND N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 52W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N32W TO 25N36W TO 15N47W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE FRONTS FROM
25N-34N BETWEEN 36W-43W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
30N45W SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW TO
MOVE E TO 31N42W...AND FOR THERE TO BE NO CHANGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA












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