[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 4N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N17W 3N30W 1N40W TO WEST OF
SAO LUIS BRAZIL NEAR 1S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 95 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W AND 21W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA
NEAR 30N87W TO THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N91W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 23N93W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 48 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EAST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REGION. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 5-25 KT IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING WITHIN 115 NM OFF THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT ARE OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO NORTH OF VERACRUZ. ELSEWHERE
IN THE GULF FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT BEING SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN THE FLORIDA  AND
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LIGHTER TRADE WINDS
OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 16N78W. ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN REGION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

IN THE WESTERN ATLC...NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW IS SPREAD
OVER THE REGION COMING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR 32N71W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE
REGION BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND STRONG DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A
STRONG 996 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 30N44W. THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW TO 29N40W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO
24N41W 22N46W 20N49W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WEST AND EAST OF THE
LOW SYSTEM...N OF 24N E OF 43W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 250 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 30N33W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 24N36W 21N40W
15N47W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 43W IS
SUPPORTING BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTING
IS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED SOUTH OF THE LOW
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 42W AND 49W. IN THE EASTERN ATLC...BOTH
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATE THE REGION PROVIDING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM 6N TO 20N
BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS













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