[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR
5N8W TO 4N13W AND 4N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N17W TO 4N21W
3N30W 3N36W AND 1N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN
25W AND 33W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 6N
BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W...AND BEYOND 28N84W AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND
13/1200 UTC HAS LOST THE SUPPORT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW IS COLD FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA NEAR 32N87W...TO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO 26N94W 20N95W..AND CURVING TO 21N99W
IN MEXICO.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG COVER THE COASTAL
STATIONS OF TEXAS. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND
LOW VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE CECIL AIRPORT
IN JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N72W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO 25N84W IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N97W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE
29N90W 26N94W 20N96W STATIONARY FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
17N60W 15N70W 13N76W 10N83W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 80W...BECOMING EASTERLY
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST
OF 70W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC
WAS 0.35 OF AN INCH IN GUADELOUPE...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N83W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF
77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
6N TO 9N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 85W
AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET IN
THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE NORTH OF 18N. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
PASSAGES TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N47W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N49W AND 17N56W AND 17N60W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 999 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N47W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N46W
24N50W 23N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ULTIMATELY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 23N40W AND 20N44W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N43W TO 17N50W
AND 14N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
39W AND 44W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 26N63W TO 25N65W 25N69W
AND 27N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 4N35W 14N33W 25N26W BEYOND 32N25W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 19N57W 21N68W
30N76W...BEYOND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N72W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N21W TO 26N28W 20N33W AND 15N43W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 18 TO 22 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
48W AND 54W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 12 TO 18 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.
EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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