[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 5N14W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W TO 3N34W 3N47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL ALONG 51W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 13W AND
15W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W...FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN
34W AND 38...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 39W
AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 13/1200 UTC HAS LOST THE
SUPPORT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. ITS FORWARD PROGRESS HAS
BECOME SLOW...IF ANY.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE COASTAL STATIONS OF
TEXAS. RAIN AND THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. IT IS RAINING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE OBSERVED AT THE CECIL AIRPORT IN JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH THE
30N90W 26N94W 19N97W COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
17N60W 15N70W 13N76W 10N83W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 80W...BECOMING EASTERLY
BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
EAST OF 70W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC
WAS 0.35 OF AN INCH IN GUADELOUPE...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N77W
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA...ACROSS PANAMA NEAR
9N80W...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N
TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 FEET FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET IN THE
MONA PASSAGE TO THE NORTH OF 18N. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSAGES
TO THE NORTH OF 15N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N48W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N50W AND 18N52W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A 997 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N48W.
A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 33N48W LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO 30N50W AND 27N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ULTIMATELY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N36W
AND 21N43W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N43W
TO 17N50W AND 14N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N36W 32N31W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
30W AND 51W.

A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N62W 28N65W 28N68W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 4N35W 16N32W 25N28W BEYOND 32N25W.

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 17N55W 22N65W
25N74W...TO 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N76W...BEYOND 32N74W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N22W TO 25N27W 18N35W AND 10N53W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 17 TO 25 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN
49W AND 56W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 14 TO 20 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W.
EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 13 TO 20 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N32W 14N57W
STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 18 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE
EAST OF 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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