[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 10 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
72W AND 78W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL STOP AT THE
18-HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 31N48W TO 25N63W TO 28N72W AT
12 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS
AND 9 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 61W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N15W 5N23W 4N32W
3N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...TO 1S47W ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N
AND BETWEEN 19W AND 33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM LOUISIANA
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF
95W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
30N93W 24N94W 18N96W STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT TO 87W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND BEYOND 32N79W.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MOISTURE AT MANY LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/0000 UTC WAS 0.27 OF AN INCH IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 4N74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 5N83W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N TO THE EAST OF
90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FEET
FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 81W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS  AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 10.5N
TO THE EAST OF 82W. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING
10 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 82W. WIND SPEEDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND BEYOND 32N79W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W
TO 25N39W TO 16N39W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 25N40W 23N45W TO 25N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N
TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N75W 25N68W 21N66W TO 15N60W
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 18N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 66W...EXCEPT WIND SPEEDS TO
30 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 40W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N36W
TO 23N43W TO 25N52W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET. A COLD FRONT 31N53W 28N65W IN
SIX HOURS WILL HAVE 20 KNOTS OR LESS OF WIND AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD
FRONT TO 65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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