[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 10 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
72W AND 78W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL STOP AT THE
12-HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IS FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 31N45W TO 23N48W AT 12 HOURS
INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 12 TO
19 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT
TO 55W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
6N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N13W TO 4N20W 2N30W AND ALONG
41W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 1N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER...THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA.
THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT...FROM LOUISIANA INTO
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF THE STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN WARMING
WITH TIME. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING...AND IT IS
DISSIPATING NEAR 25N91W.

SOME WEATHER STATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...FROM NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO SOUTHERN COASTAL
LOUISIANA...TO SOUTH TEXAS...HAVE BEEN REPORTING OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH LOW VERTICAL VISIBILITIES AND FOG...FOR THE LAST
FEW HOURS. OTHER STATIONS IN THAT AREA HAVE BEEN REPORTING
CLEAR SKIES. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF 94W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. AREAS OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE IN FLORIDA FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA SOUTHWARD.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST
OF 90W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 74W/75W SURFACE RIDGE. A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR
28N94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND BEYOND 32N79W.

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE AREA..EXCEPT POSSIBLY TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...WITHOUT REACHING
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EITHER COUNTRY. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TOWARD CENTRAL
CUBA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MOISTURE AT MANY LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/0000 UTC WAS 0.27 OF AN INCH IN CURACAO...
AND 0.08 OF AN INCH IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 5N83W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N TO THE EAST OF
90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N
TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 66W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO
28N53W AND 25N56W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N51W TO 30N55W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 41W AND 66W.
STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 48W AND
70W...RUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT IS RELATED TO THE AREA
OF THE DEVELOPING GALE IN 12 HOURS IN THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...THAT IS A SPECIAL FEATURE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE BETWEEN HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND BEYOND 32N79W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO
25N39W TO 16N39W. THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N37W
27N40W 23N44W 22N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
27W AND 35W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 74W/75W...PASSING THROUGH 32N TO 20N
AND CUBA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N52W 28N58W COLD FRONT AND 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 65W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
18N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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