[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W
AND EXTENDS WESTWARD IN THE EASTERN ATLC TO 7N15W. A TRANSITION
INTO THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N20W 3N26W 2N36W TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF THE ITCZ FROM 6S TO 3N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OFF THE BRAZILIAN NORTHERN COAST FROM ILHA DE MARAJO
TO SAO LUIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21 UTC...ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF WHERE A COLD FRONT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
A STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO 24N93W 20N95W. EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI ALONG 28N88W 27N89W 25N90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT AND THE
SQUALL LINE N OF 24N. STRONG SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EAST OF THE SQUALL LINE AXIS AND 70 NM WEST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF 24N. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS OVER EASTERN TEXAS SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHILE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT SUBSIDING AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
EAST PORTION OF THE GULF AS WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 KT SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF EAST OF
THE SQUALL LINE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KT ARE WEST OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISPLACE SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR LOUISIANA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF DURING THIS PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY
AIR ALOFT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH OF COLOMBIA ALONG WITH
MAINLY 20-25 KT TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC BEING SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE S OF 30N. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N59W SOUTHEASTWARD TO 23N56W AND A 1017 MB
SURFACE LOW FROM WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS. THE LOW
POSITIONED NEAR 29N38W AND THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 27N40W 24N42W TO 24N49W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DETECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MAINLY EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. FAIR
WEATHER IS NOTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS




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