[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
72W AND 78W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 12 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE AT THE 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD...FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL STOP
AT THE 42-HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 31N43W TO 25N55W TO 31N76W AT
42 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS
AND 10 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 54W...EXCEPT 16 TO 24 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N15W TO 7N20W 3N30W
AND 1N37W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W/43W...AND CONTINUING
ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 49W AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG
IN BRAZIL FROM 5S TO 2S BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. SCATTERED STRONG
TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 5W AND 7W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN
19W AND 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 23W AND 51W IN NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 30N101W IN TEXAS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG
BEND. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THE U.S.A. FROM 10N TO 34N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. THIS CYCLONIC
CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS IN TEXAS NEAR 32N99W...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF BROWNWOOD...BETWEEN WACO AND SAN ANGELO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 29N96W AND
22N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N96W...EASTWARD...
ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COAST...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BEYOND FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND
32N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND AREAS
OF RAIN...ARE IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WESTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
29N96W 21N98W STATIONARY FRONT AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN
91W AND THE FRONT...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N
TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N71W
BEYOND 32N75W.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 73W...FROM 14N TO 18N TO
THE WEST OF 73W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N78W AT THE
COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND 7N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF
78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 82W...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE
WEST OF 82W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N71W OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N71W
BEYOND 32N75W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO
25N38W 16N47W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N28W TO 26N48W AND 26N53W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 26N53W TO 30N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN
36W AND 47W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 24N47W 24N57W 32N65W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 29N29W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING
10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 66W...20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN
56W AND 66W...WIND SPEEDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 56W.
AN ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY 29N35W 26N52W 31N61W. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 11 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 30N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 40W. A COLD FRONT FOR 36 HOURS WILL
BE ALONG 31N48W 27N60W 31N75W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...ALL THIS IS FOR THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 60W

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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