[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
72W AND 78W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 12 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE AT THE 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD...FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL STOP
AT THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 31N44W TO 25N52W TO 31N67W AT
36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS
AND 12 TO 18 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 57W...EXCEPT 18 TO 24 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO
THE NORTH OF 30N...AND GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 150 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR
4N8W TO 7N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 7N14W 3N20W AND
1N25W...CONTINUING IN THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BUT NOT
CROSSING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W AND 34W...AND FINALLY CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...AND REMAINING ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 36W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 3N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 3W AND
9W...FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N
BETWEEN 40W AND 52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 32N100W IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. FROM 14N
TO OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 93W AND 110W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER AND
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS IN TEXAS NEAR 32N98W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT REACHES FROM THE
32N98W LOW CENTER TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N94W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS THAT
ARE OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS...FOG...AND AREAS OF RAIN...ARE IN THE U.S.A. COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N
BEYOND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BETWEEN 90W AND 96W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
30N94W 21N97W...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH 30N92W 21N95W.
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 27N ARE WITHIN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
TROUGH. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 23N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE CENTER
OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND
BEYOND 32N76W.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS
THIS WIND FLOW REGIME TO THE WEST OF 72W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 7N84W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS
TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST
OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 82W...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE
WEST OF 82W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE CENTER
OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND
BEYOND 32N76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO
25N38W 16N47W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 30N30W 26N40W 26N50W 30N59W AND 31N62W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 33W AND 44W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 39N22W TO 34N35W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N51W. THE TAIL END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BREAKS UP
THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 30N64W TO A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N74W...TOWARD THE COASTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 18N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 59W...EXCEPT WIND SPEEDS TO
30 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 24N
TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 77W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF
43W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 28N35W TO 25N45W TO 31N60W.
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A COLD FRONT FOR 24 HOURS WILL BE
ALONG 31N52W 30N53W 31N65W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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