[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA
FROM 5N9W TO 5N12W. THEN THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N20W 3N26W
1N32W 1N41W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND
48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IMPACTING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
AS A SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST.
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
GALVESTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI COASTS NEAR 28N95W WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO NEAR 21N97W. RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE REGIONS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ABOUT
50 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AXIS. A SECOND REGION OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS FARTHER EAST ALONG A SQUALL
LINE FROM 29N94W TO 26N94W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREAD
WEST AND NORTH ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND
MISSISSIPPI. A PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT COMING FROM THE
LOW CENTER LINES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FROM NEW ORLEANS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA TO JACKSONVILLE. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THIS REGION OF THE
GULF. THE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TEXAS NEAR 29N102W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED
BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING
PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST BEFORE IT
STARTS TO DISSIPATE IN THE CENTRAL GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES EXPERIENCING BASIN-WIDE FAIR WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY
DRY AIR ALOFT. TRADE WINDS WITH MAINLY 25 KT SPREAD OVER EASTERN
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED SOUTH OF LA
HISPANIOLA ALL THE WAY TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N49W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...WEST ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC WEST OF 54W.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EAST OF 54W AND THE
EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
29N34W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 26N43W 26N50W BECOMING
STATIONARY AT 26N52W TO 30N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED W
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.
ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR






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