[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM
6N10W TO 7N13W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 7N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG
6N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS IMPACTING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS A
SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. AS OF 1500 UTC...A
1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED JUST INLAND OF THE TEXAS COAST
NEAR 29N97W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO
NEAR 25N99W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
AXIS. A SECOND AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS FARTHER
EAST ALONG A SQUALL LINE FROM 29N94W TO 27N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREAD WEST AND NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI. A STATIONARY FRONT
ALSO LINES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE LOW CENTER IN TEXAS
ALL THE WAY INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERCAST SKIES ARE SEEN
IN THIS AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N103W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH
IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS PRESENT EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH
WILL SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY IN THE CENTRAL
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN ALONG 71W ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
ALOFT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS HELPING SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF COLOMBIA
ALONG WITH MAINLY 25 KT TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 35N52W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...WEST ATLC ALONG 71W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC..WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N30W 28N39W BECOMING
STATIONARY AT 27N50W TO 32N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE AXIS. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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