[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 11 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
71W AND 78W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS AND 11 TO 16 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 24 HOURS...WHEN THE AFFECTED AREA WILL
CHANGE TO BE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST IS FOR GALE-FORCE WIND AND 12 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE IVORY COAST AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W TO 5N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
5N11W TO 3N20W 1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...AND STAYING
IN THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 34W AND 40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N
TO THE EAST OF 13W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN
27W AND 52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS AND THE OTHER U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.
THE DIRECTION IS COMPARATIVELY MORE SOUTHERLY TO THE NORTH OF
25N TO THE WEST OF 94W...CREATING DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...AND
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
27N103W...NOW IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHERMAKER FOR MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND
NORTHWARD INTO THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
26N102W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...TO THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 26N99W. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TO EAST TEXAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR A 24N97W 26N96W 28N96W SQUALL LINE.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO COVERS TEXAS FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE TEXAS BORDER WITH OKLAHOMA
THAT IS NEAR 34N97W. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
30N105W...AND A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
19N103W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM APALACHEE BAY OF FLORIDA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST THAT
IS NEAR 19N96W. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD
AND THEN WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N70W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH FLORIDA...AND CONTINUING ALONG 30N
TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR 27N86W...TO 24N90W...TO COASTAL MEXICO
NEAR 21N98W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 94W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AT THE 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD...ALONG 30N94W
26N95W 21N97W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO 19N62W...CLOSER
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W.

THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. RAINSHOWERS STILL ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N
TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR THE LAST
FEW DAYS THAT AN 850 MB TROUGH HAS BEEN ALONG THE LINE FROM
CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE LATEST
MODEL SHOWS A TROUGH THAT COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA
TO GUATEMALA...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 925 MB.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W...
AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF
78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.72 OF AN INCH...AND
0.58 OF AN INCH FOR CURACAO...AND FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING
AT 09/0000 UTC FOR CURACAO 0.23 OF AN INCH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N79W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER
THAT IS NEAR 9N83W...BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF
78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FEET
FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W...EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 17N TO 20N. ALSO EXPECT 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO 19N62W...CLOSER TO
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO
27N32W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N32W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
28N50W 27N56W 30N70W...AND THEN CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG 30N
TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
60W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO
23N19W TO 16N23W IN THE AREA OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO
11N28W. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 22W AND 36W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N17W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N28W AND 27N35W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...EXCEPT TO 30 KNOTS NEAR
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH
OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 63W...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 21N TO THE WEST OF 50W...AND 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF THE 31N35W 27N50W COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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