[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W
TO 6N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N13W TO 5N20W 2N30W 2N40W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
2N TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W...WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 1N7W...TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 24W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N
BETWEEN 24W AND 52W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS AND THE OTHER U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N105W...NOW IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHERMAKER FOR MEXICO AND
TEXAS...AND NORTHWARD INTO THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC CENTER HAS
BEEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LAST 16 TO 24 HOURS OR SO.

A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
26N102W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER...THROUGH
MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N102W AND 21N103W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WAS
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W
AS LATE AS 09/0145 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING WITH TIME AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING...
SCATTERED STRONG HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN TEXAS BETWEEN 96W AND
100W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST THAT
IS NEAR 22N98W. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD
AND THEN WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N97W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 94W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO AT THE 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD...ALONG 29N95W
25N95W 22N98W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 18N56W...ABOUT 300 NM
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...TO GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE...AND THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W. THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS THAT AN 850 MB TROUGH HAS BEEN ALONG THE LINE FROM CENTRAL
NICARAGUA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE LATEST MODEL SHOWS
A TROUGH THAT COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO
GUATEMALA...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 925 MB.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W...
AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF
78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.72 OF AN INCH...AND
0.58 OF AN INCH FOR CURACAO...AND FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING
AT 09/0000 UTC FOR CURACAO 0.23 OF AN INCH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N78W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA...TO 9N85W OFFSHORE...BEYOND 6N90W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING
ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 90W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
GALE-FORCE WIND THAT IS BLOWING NOW AND THE 11 TO 14 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.
OTHER WIND AND SEA INFORMATION...20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 20N TO THE
EAST OF 81W...THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PART.
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 11N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 18N56W...ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OF GUADELOUPE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE
NORTH OF 6N TO THE WEST OF 40W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO
27N32W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N35W TO 28N50W 27N56W AND 29N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 29N59W TO 30N67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO
25N18W TO 17N23W NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
TO 11N29W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N22W TO 29N24W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 26N37W 25N50W
AND 25N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N22W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N39W 29N45W 28N53W COLD FRONT AND
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
READ ABOUT ALSO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 24N89W 22N62W...EXCEPT TO 30 KNOT WINDS
NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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