[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO
1N40W TO BRAZIL AT EQ49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 14W-28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1004 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N MEXICO NEAR 26N104W PRODUCING
SHOWERS. RETURN FLOW FROM A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N
ATLANTIC IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF.
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY 10-20 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E
TEXAS... LOUISIANA...AND THE NW GULF... N OF 26N BETWEEN
91W-99W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N107W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW OVER MEXICO TO MOVE TO S TEXAS WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF. ALSO EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE NW
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
73W-78W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND N NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION
TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND FOR THE GALE TO PERSIST.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 29N60W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N38W TO 28N50W TO 29N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 34N24W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SE INTO THE E ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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