[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N8W TO 2N20W 2N34W 2N45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 15W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

RETURN FLOW FROM A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N ATLC IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE TO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF WHERE A WARM
FRONT HAS FORMED. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CORPUS
CHRISTI...CROSSES THE S OF TEXAS THEN WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. E OF THE WARM FRONT A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES AND IS
BORDERING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
N OF 23 W OF 90W. WITHIN 24 HOURS...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT THE SURFACE...TRADE WINDS OF 15 KT TO 25 KT DOMINATE THE
REGION. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA WHERE A GALE IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL A SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS POSITIONED FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS IS SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITHIN 24 HOURS...TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WITH GALE OR NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 29N56W
AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 29N72W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 29N77W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
THE EASTERN ATLC...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
29N25W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 27N30W 22N39W. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS FROM 26N TO
30N BETWEEN 31W AND 45W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER
THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR





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