[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
4N TO 4N11W...PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF LIBERIA ALONG THE WAY. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N11W TO 3N20W
2N30W AND 1N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 20W...TO THE SOUTH
OF 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W
AND 46W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 46W
AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND TEXAS AND THE OTHER U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 29N110W IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHERMAKER FOR MEXICO AND TEXAS...
AND NORTHWARD INTO THE U.S.A.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
30N60W AND 27N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N70W TO
27N76W AND 27N80W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 28N
BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SOME AREAS OF FOG...AND
SOME AREAS OF RAIN COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST...IN TEXAS TO THE
SOUTH OF 30N...AND IN MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF
100W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND 90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO START AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CONTINUE
TO LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N59W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE
EAST OF JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST
OF JAMAICA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE EAST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.
MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N IN EASTERN GUATEMALA TO 20N BETWEEN
86W AND 92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN 850 MB TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM CENTRAL
NICARAGUA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM FROM 13N
TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N72W IN COLOMBIA...TO 3N76W
AND THROUGH 3N77W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST...BEYOND 4N82W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE
MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING THAT IS FORECAST TO START IN 24 HOURS...
30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 15 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE WIND CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 81W.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO
29N56W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 30N60W AND 27N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
27N70W TO 27N76W AND 27N80W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N59W...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 27W
AND 50W...TO THE SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W
TO 25N22W 16N28W AND 13N31W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 31N24W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N24W TO 28N30W 24N36W AND 23N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27 TO 30N35W 27N46W 27N63W...TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W...NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABACO ISLAND.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N24W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 31N57W 27N72W COLD FRONT AND 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W
AND 79W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 45W AND THE FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 22N
TO THE EAST OF 45W. OTHER WINDS AND SEAS...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 17N TO THE WEST OF 55W.
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 65W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST
OF 70W INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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